Janusz Bugajski

Moscow presents a dual challenge for the West: its neo-imperial ambitions, as evident in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the looming prospect of Russia’s state rupture. While much has been written about Moscow’s expansionism, less attention has been paid to the shaky pillars of the Russian Federation. The two factors are closely related, as the Kremlin will become more aggressive internationally to disguise its internal fissures. Escalating internal problems have convinced Moscow that a bolder and riskier foreign policy strategy can bring domestic benefits by mobilizing citizens around “fortress Russia” and silencing dissent. However, this will boomerang against the regime if the war in Ukraine is prolonged, costly, and heavily sanctioned. Both re-imperialization and fragmentation will confront the Western alliance with critical policy decisions in deterring and defending itself from Russia’s attacks while simultaneously managing Russia’s demise as a single state.

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 Neglecting Russia’s state failure could prove more damaging to Western interests than preparing to manage its international repercussions. The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union over thirty years ago should serve as a lesson that geopolitical revolutions occur regardless of the Kremlin’s denials or the West’s adherence to a transient status quo.